Climate model experiments on the 4.2 ka event: The impact of tropical sea-surface temperature anomalies and desertification

The 4.2 ka event is one of the most prominent climate events of the Holocene. In this study, several climate model experiments were performed to investigate its causal mechanism. The focus in these experiments was on the impact of anomalies in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with enhanced El Nino activity, as this has been proposed as an important driver for the event. Six different SST anomaly scenarios were considered, covering the tropical sectors of the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans. In addition, the possible impact of desertification in Northern Africa and Arabia was taken into account. The model results were evaluated against the global humidity anomaly signature for the 4.2 ka event as provided by proxy-based reconstructions from 129 different sites. It is found that a scenario with desertification and warm Pacific SSTs and cold Atlantic SSTs provides the best match with these proxies. This experiment produces significant decreases in precipitation in South Asia, West and East Africa, and increases in South America and northwest North America. These results are partly forced by the strong increase in albedo in North Africa and Arabia, leading to regional cooling and more stable atmospheric conditions, and partly by enhanced atmospheric moisture transport to South America related to an enhanced land-sea thermal contrast. Based on these results, it is proposed that the 4.2 ka event was caused by tropical SST anomalies, leading to drying in North Africa, assisted by ongoing desertification in Northern Africa and Arabia.

Automated summary

In this study, climate model experiments were conducted to investigate the causal mechanism of the 4.2 ka event, one of the most prominent climate events of the Holocene. The results suggest that tropical sea surface temperature anomalies, along with ongoing desertification in Northern Africa and Arabia, played a significant role in causing the event. This led to drying in North Africa, decreased precipitation in South Asia and East Africa, and increased precipitation in South America and northwest North America.