Global divergent trends of algal blooms detected by satellite during 1982-2018

Algal blooms (ABs) in inland lakes have caused adverse ecological effects, and health impairment of animals and humans. We used archived Landsat images to examine ABs in lakes (>1 km(2)) around the globe over a 37-year time span (1982-2018). Out of the 176032 lakes with area >1 km(2) detected globally, 863 were impacted by ABs, 708 had sufficiently long records to define a trend, and 66% exhibited increasing trends in frequency ratio (FRQR, ratio of the number of ABs events observed in a year in a given lake to the number of available Landsat images for that lake) or area ratio (AR, ratio of annual maximum area covered by ABs observed in a lake to the surface area of that lake), while 34% showed a decreasing trend. Across North America, an intensification of ABs severity was observed for FRQR (p < .01) and AR (p < .01) before 1999, followed by a decrease in ABs FRQR (p < .01) and AR (p < .05) after the 2000s. The strongest intensification of ABs was observed in Asia, followed by South America, Africa, and Europe. No clear trend was detected for the Oceania. Across climatic zones, the contributions of anthropogenic factors to ABs intensification (16.5% for fertilizer, 19.4% for gross domestic product, and 18.7% for population) were slightly stronger than climatic drivers (10.1% for temperature, 11.7% for wind speed, 16.8% for pressure, and for 11.6% for rainfall). Collectively, these divergent trends indicate that consideration of anthropogenic factors as well as climate change should be at the forefront of management policies aimed at reducing the severity and frequency of ABs in inland waters.

Automated summary

Algal blooms in inland lakes have shown divergent trends over the past 37 years, with increasing and decreasing frequencies and extents observed in different regions. North America experienced an intensification of algal blooms before 1999, followed by a decrease in severity after the 2000s. Asia had the strongest intensification of algal blooms, followed by South America, Africa, and Europe. Anthropogenic factors had slightly stronger contributions to algal bloom intensification compared to climatic drivers.