Potential causes of megadroughts in North China in the preindustrial period from the teleconnection perspective

The potential causes of megadroughts over North China (NC) in the preindustrial period were investigated using eight climate models evolved using CMIP5/PMIP3 and multiple proxy data. The full forcing experiments driven by both external forcing and internal variability show that megadroughts in NC were accompanied by extensive decadal drying over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), particularly in most of North America and Europe. The spatial pattern of hydroclimate matched well with the proxy-based illustration. However, such hydroclimate conditions over NH were difficult to reproduce in control experiments driven solely by internal variability. This finding suggests that external forcing may be a crucial factor leading to megadroughts in NC and simultaneous decadal drying over the NH. Moreover, external forcing may lead to climate cooling. Climate cooling weakened the pressure gradient from the West Pacific to East Asia and hence reduced the water vapor to land; meanwhile, local vertical downward movement occurred in the cooling climate background, which was unfavorable to air convection over NC. Both reduced water vapor and weakened air convection led to less precipitation. Meanwhile, there was a negative NAO, which intensified the eastward wave train at mid-latitudes. Consequently, the North American trough and European trough deepened, the northerlies in the post trough pattern intensified, and the water vapor from the high-latitude continent or polar areas was low, which was unfavorable to precipitation. This study implies that the megadrought in NC and simultaneous hydroclimatic spatial pattern over the NH may be underestimated in the CMIP5 climate prediction, which excludes external forcing.

Automated summary

The study suggests that the megadrought in North China and simultaneous hydroclimatic spatial pattern over the Northern Hemisphere may be underestimated in the CMIP5 climate prediction, which excludes external forcing.