Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 48, Issue 22, Pages -Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2021GL095335
Keywords
extreme rainfall; floods; CMIP6; integrated water vapor transport (IVT); moisture; climate change
Categories
Funding
- Australian Research Council (ARC) [DE180100638]
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes [CE170100023]
- Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)
- U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, Regional & Global Model Analysis Program [DE-AC02-05CH11231]
- Environmental Resilience Institute - Indiana University's Prepared for Environmental Change Grand Challenge initiative
- Lilly Endowment, Inc.
- Australian Government
- Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship
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The study indicates that in the future, Sydney may experience more frequent and prolonged high water vapor transport events, and this change is correlated with the rate of global and regional warming in each model.
During March 2021, large regions of Eastern Australia experienced prolonged heavy rainfall and extensive flooding. The maximum daily mean column integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over Sydney during this event was within the top 0.3% of all days since 1980, and the 10-day mean IVT was in the top 0.2%. In this study, we have examined the change in frequency of extreme IVT events over Sydney in 16 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). Generalized Extreme Value modeling was used to further analyze the change in frequency of extreme IVT events. We found the probability of long duration high IVT events is projected to increase by 80% at the end of the century, but the future change in IVT is correlated to the rate of global and regional warming in each model.
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