Mortality estimates from ovarian age distributions of the tsetse fly Glossina pallidipes Austen sampled in Zimbabwe suggest the need for new analytical approaches

Mortality estimates are central to understanding tsetse fly population dynamics, but are difficult to acquire from wild populations. They can be obtained from age distribution data but, with limited data, it is unclear whether the assumptions required to make the estimates are satisfied and, if not, how violations affect the estimates. We evaluate the assumptions required for existing mortality estimation techniques using long-term longitudinal ovarian dissection data from 144,106 female tsetse, Glossina pallidipes Austen, captured in Zimbabwe between 1988 and 1999. At the end of the hot-dry season each year, mean ovarian ages peaked, and maximum-likelihood mortality estimates declined to low levels, contrary to mark-recapture estimates, suggesting violations of the assumptions underlying the estimation technique. We demonstrate that age distributions are seldom stable for G. pallidipes at our study site, and hypothesize that this is a consequence of a disproportionate increase in the mortality of pupae and young adults at the hottest times of the year. Assumptions of age-independent mortality and capture probability are also violated, the latter bias varying with capture method and with pregnancy and nutritional status. As a consequence, mortality estimates obtained from ovarian dissection data are unreliable. To overcome these problems we suggest simulating female tsetse populations, using dynamical modelling techniques that make no assumptions about the stability of the age distribution.