COVID-19 in Asia: Transmission factors, re-opening policies, and vaccination simulation

This work aims to provide insights on the COVID-19 pandemic in three prime aspects. First, we attempted to understand the association between the COVID-19 transmission rate, environmental factors (air pollution, weather, mobility), and socio-political parameters (Government Stringency Index, GSI). Second, we evaluated the efficiency of various strategies, including radical opening, intermittent lockdown, phase lift, and contact tracing, to exit the COVID-19 pandemic and get back to pre-pandemic conditions using a stochastic individual-based epidemiology model. Third, we used a deep learning approach and simulated the vaccination rate and the time for reaching herd immunity. The analysis was done based on the collected data from eight countries in Asia, including Iran, Turkey, India, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, the Philippines, South Korea, and Russia (as a transcontinental country). Our findings in the first part highlighted a noninfluential impact from the weather-driven parameters and short-term exposure to pollutants on the transmission rate; however, long-term expo -sure could potentially increase the risk of COVID-19 mortality rates (based on 1998-2017 p.m.2.5 data). Mobility was highly correlated with the COVID-19 transmission and based on our causal analysis reducing mobility could curb the COVID-19 transmission rate with a 6-day lag time (on average). Secondly, among all the tested policies for exiting the COVID-19 pandemic, the contact tracing was the most efficient if executed correctly. With a 2-day delay in tracing the virus hosts, a 60% successful host tracing, and a 70% contact reduction with the hosts, a pandemic will end in a year without overburdening a healthcare system with 6000 hospital beds capacity per million. Lastly, our vaccine simulations showed that the target date for achieving herd immunity significantly varied among the countries and could be delayed to October-november 2022 in countries like India and Iran (based on 60% immunized population and assuming no intermediate factors affecting the vaccination rate).

Automated summary

The study found that short-term exposure to pollutants has little impact on the COVID-19 transmission rate, but long-term exposure could potentially increase mortality. Mobility is closely related to COVID-19 transmission, reducing mobility can slow down the transmission rate. Contact tracing is an effective strategy for controlling the pandemic.