There's no place like home - The impact of residential heterogeneity on bottom-up energy system modeling

Building heating demand makes up about a third of final energy consumption in Germany. Increasing energy efficiency and switching to alternative heating technologies, e.g., based on renewable energies, plays a pivotal role in achieving greenhouse gas emission targets in the building sector. In developing meaningful and efficient policies such as incentive schemes, a thorough understanding of the building sector structures and heating systems is crucial. To approach the said matter, we couple an urban energy system platform to assess single building heat demands based on geometrically exact 3D building models (SimStadt) with a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) for cost-optimization of residential technology investment and operation (COMODO). We apply the novel bottom-up model framework to show the loss of heterogeneity in actual building geometries and their physical properties induced by using simplified approaches with archetypal buildings. In the analysis, 100 buildings of the same TABULA building type are simulated and optimized with the proposed model framework. We assess heterogeneity on several levels, including net energy demand, the choice of cost-optimal heating system, and final energy demand: for example, specific heating demand varies by 20% between the 100 case study buildings which would have hitherto considered to have equal demand. This spread shows that details such as building geometries are a critical factor in modeling energy systems on a local scale. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

Building heating demand in Germany accounts for about a third of final energy consumption, emphasizing the importance of increasing energy efficiency and transitioning to renewable heating technologies. By coupling an urban energy system platform with a cost optimization model, a thorough understanding of building sector structures and heating systems is vital for accurate heat demand assessments. The study shows the significance of building geometries in modeling energy systems at a local scale, highlighting the heterogeneity in specific heating demand and optimal heating system choices among buildings of the same type.