Transitioning towards a 100% solar-hydro based generation: A system dynamic approach

Many countries have targeted a gradual transition towards 100% green generation; however, there is uncertainty concerning the economic and social consequences of such a transition. The main technologies that have been implemented are hydro, wind and solar. The latter two could cause an increase in electricity prices due to a mismatch between demand and supply. This paper uses a system dynamics approach to analyze the transition process of Switzerland, which is gradually moving from nuclear towards solar and hydro base generation. We consider hydro-pumped storage to address the timing problem between supply and demand. We developed different scenarios to test the viability of such a system. Our findings indicate that leaving the system to a free market will entail shortages during the transition, as well as a doubling of the electricity price. To mitigate this effect, we propose a capacity auction mechanism to smooth the transition process. We find that subsidizing PV indirectly encourages storage, thereby eliminating shortages, and mitigating the increase in the electricity price during the transition. (c) 2021 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Automated summary

The study analyzed the transition process of Switzerland from nuclear towards solar and hydro base generation, proposing the use of a capacity auction mechanism to smooth the transition and mitigate the increase in electricity prices. Subsidizing PV indirectly encourages storage, thereby eliminating shortages during the transition process.