Demand drivers and changes in food-related emissions in the UK: A decomposition approach

UK food-related greenhouse gas emissions have substantially decreased over the last two decades in response to changes in the household food baskets. The evolution of diets depends on a combination of driving forces, not necessarily acting in the same direction. We propose a decomposition of household food choices which separates changes in tastes and consumer preferences from the effects of prices, household budgets, and socio-demographic trends. More specifically, we explore to what extent these drivers facilitate or hinder the adoption of sustainable food choices. Our decomposition strategy is grounded on a theory-consistent demand system to account for substitution effects across food groups. We find that the decline in UK food-related emissions is primarily driven by reductions in household food budgets and evolving food preferences. Relative price dynamics and demographic trends act in the opposite direction, but their effect is small. Our evidence suggests that policy interventions aiming to shape consumer preferences towards more sustainable choices could be a valid instrument to further reduce food-related emissions in the UK.

Automated summary

Greenhouse gas emissions related to UK food consumption have significantly decreased over the past 20 years, primarily driven by reductions in household food budgets and evolving food preferences. While relative price dynamics and demographic trends have a smaller impact, policy interventions targeting consumer preferences could be an effective tool in further reducing food-related emissions.