Projections of North American snow from NA-CORDEX and their uncertainties, with a focus on model resolution

Snow is important for many physical, social, and economic sectors in North America. In a warming climate, the characteristics of snow will likely change in fundamental ways, therefore compelling societal need for future projections of snow. However, many stakeholders require climate change information at finer resolutions that global climate models (GCMs) can provide. The North American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) provides an ensemble of regional climate model (RCMs) simulations at two resolutions (similar to 0.5 degrees and similar to 0.25 degrees) designed to help serve the climate impacts and adaptation communities. This is the first study to examine the differences in end of twenty-first-century projections of snow from the NA-CORDEX RCMs and their driving GCMs. We find that the broad patterns of change are similar across RCMs and GCMs: snow cover retreats, snow mass decreases everywhere except at high latitudes, and the duration of the snow covered season decreases. Regionally, the spatial details, magnitude, percent, and uncertainty of future changes vary between the GCM and RCM ensemble but are similar between the two resolutions of the RCM ensembles. An increase in winter snow amounts at high latitudes is a robust response across all ensembles. Percent snow losses are found to be more substantial in the GCMs than the RCMs over most of North America, especially in regions with high-elevation topography. Specifically, percent snow losses decrease with increasing elevation as the model resolution becomes finer.

Automated summary

This study examines the differences in end of twenty-first-century projections of snow from the North American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) regional climate model (RCMs) and their driving global climate models (GCMs). The findings show that snow cover retreats, snow mass decreases everywhere except at high latitudes, and the duration of the snow covered season decreases. The spatial details, magnitude, percent, and uncertainty of future changes vary between the GCM and RCM ensemble but are similar between the two resolutions of the RCM ensembles. An increase in winter snow amounts at high latitudes is a robust response across all ensembles. Percent snow losses are found to be more substantial in the GCMs than the RCMs over most of North America.