Different mechanisms of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice response to ocean heat transport

Understanding drivers of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice on multidecadal timescales is key to reducing uncertainties in long-term climate projections. Here we investigate the impact of ocean heat transport (OHT) on sea ice, using pre-industrial control simulations of 20 models participating in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In all models and in both hemispheres, sea ice extent is negatively correlated with poleward OHT. However, the similarity of the correlations in both hemispheres hides radically different underlying mechanisms. In the northern hemisphere, positive OHT anomalies primarily result in increased ocean heat convergence along the Atlantic sea ice edge, where most of the ice loss occurs. Such strong, localised heat fluxes (similar to 100 W m(-2)) also drive increased atmospheric moist-static energy convergence at higher latitudes, resulting in a pan-Arctic reduction in sea ice thickness. In the southern hemisphere, increased OHT is released relatively uniformly under the Antarctic ice pack, so that associated sea ice loss is driven by basal melt with no direct atmospheric role. These results are qualitatively robust across models and strengthen the case for a substantial contribution of ocean forcing to sea ice uncertainty, and biases relative to observations, in climate models.

Automated summary

Understanding the impact of ocean heat transport on sea ice extent can help reduce uncertainties in long-term climate projections. In this study, researchers found that the mechanisms of ocean heat transport's impact on sea ice are different in the northern and southern hemispheres. In the northern hemisphere, increased ocean heat transport leads to increased ocean heat convergence along the Atlantic sea ice edge and a reduction in pan-Arctic sea ice thickness. In the southern hemisphere, increased ocean heat transport results in basal melt and sea ice loss.