Journal
CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FISHERIES AND AQUATIC SCIENCES
Volume 79, Issue 4, Pages 611-630Publisher
CANADIAN SCIENCE PUBLISHING
DOI: 10.1139/cjfas-2021-0094
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Funding
- Exxon Valdez Oil Trustee Council (EVOSTC)
- Fisheries Management
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This study investigated the usefulness of seroprevalence data in fish population models, specifically using Pacific herring as a case study. The results showed that simulated seroprevalence data can accurately estimate infection history and disease-associated mortality, even in the presence of nonstationary processes. These findings highlight the importance of considering seroprevalence data when estimating disease mortality in fish populations.
When estimating mortality from disease with fish population models, common disease surveillance data such as infection prevalence are not always informative, especially for fast-acting diseases that may go unobserved in infrequently sampled populations. In these cases, seroprevalence - the proportion of fish with measurable antibody levels in their blood - may be more informative. In cases of life-long immunity, seroprevalence data require less frequent sampling intervals than infection prevalence data and can reflect the cumulative exposure history of fish. We simulation tested the usefulness of seroprevalence data in an age-structured fish stock assessment model using viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) in Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) as a case study. We developed a novel epidemiological model to simulate population dynamics and seroprevalence data and fitted to these data in an integrated catch-at-age model with equations that estimate age- and time-varying mortality from disease. We found that simulated seroprevalence data can provide accurate estimates of infection history and disease-associated mortality. Importantly, even models that misspecified nonstationary processes in background or disease-associated mortality, but included seroprevalence data, accurately estimated annual infection and population abundance.
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