Asymmetric Relationship between Ambient Air Temperature and Incidence of COVID-19 in the Human Population

The complexity of transmission of COVID-19 in the human population cannot be overstated. Although major transmission routes of COVID-19 remain as human-to-human interactions, understanding the possible role of climatic and weather processes in accelerating such interactions is still a challenge. The majority of studies on the transmission of this disease have suggested a positive association between a decrease in ambient air temperature and an increase in human cases. Using data from 19 early epicenters, we show that the relationship between the incidence of COVID-19 and temperature is a complex function of prevailing climatic conditions influencing human behavior that govern virus transmission dynamics. We note that under a dry (low-moisture) environment, notably at dew point temperatures below 0 degrees C, the incidence of the disease was highest. Prevalence of the virus in the human population, when ambient air temperatures were higher than 24 degrees C or lower than 17 degrees C, was hypothesized to be a function of the interaction between humans and the built or ambient environment. An ambient air temperature range of 17 to 24 degrees C was identified, within which virus transmission appears to decrease, leading to a reduction in COVID-19 human cases.

Automated summary

The complexity of COVID-19 transmission in the human population is significant. Although human-to-human interactions are the main transmission routes, the impact of climatic and weather processes on accelerating these interactions is still a challenge. Studies have shown a positive association between a decrease in ambient air temperature and an increase in human cases. Using data from 19 early epicenters, this study demonstrates that the relationship between COVID-19 incidence and temperature is influenced by prevailing climatic conditions and human behavior. The highest incidence of the disease was observed in a dry environment with dew point temperatures below 0 degrees C. The prevalence of the virus in the human population is hypothesized to be a function of human interaction with the built or ambient environment when ambient air temperatures are higher than 24 degrees C or lower than 17 degrees C. An ambient air temperature range of 17 to 24 degrees C is associated with a decrease in virus transmission and a reduction in COVID-19 human cases.