Impact of urbanization trends on production of key staple crops

Urbanization has appropriated millions of hectares of cropland, and this trend will persist as cities continue to expand. We estimate the impact of this conversion as the amount of land needed elsewhere to give the same yield potential as determined by differences in climate and soil properties. Robust spatial upscaling techniques, well-validated crop simulation models, and soil, climate, and cropping system databases are employed with a focus on populous countries with high rates of land conversion. We find that converted cropland is 30-40% more productive than new cropland, which means that projection of food production potential must account for expected cropland loss to urbanization. Policies that protect existing farmland from urbanization would help relieve pressure on expansion of agriculture into natural ecosystems.

Automated summary

Urbanization has led to the loss of millions of hectares of cropland, affecting food production potential. Converted cropland is found to be 30-40% more productive than new cropland, suggesting that projections of food production potential should consider expected cropland loss to urbanization. Policies protecting existing farmland from urbanization could help reduce pressure on agricultural expansion into natural ecosystems.