Journal
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL
Volume 62, Issue 2, Pages 246-258Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2016.1183774
Keywords
GEV-CDN model; nonstationarity; flood frequency analysis; flood risk; Pearl River basin
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Funding
- National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China [51425903]
- Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China [CUHK441313]
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Nonstationary GEV-CDN models considering time as a covariate are built for evaluating the flood risk and failure risk of the major flood-control infrastructure in the Pearl River basin, China. The results indicate: (1) increasing peak flood flow is observed in the mainstream of the West River and North River basins and decreasing peak flood flow is observed in the East River basin; in particular, increasing peak flood flow is detected in the mainstream of the lower Pearl River basin and also in the Pearl River Delta region, the most densely populated region of the Pearl River basin; (2) differences in return periods analysed under stationarity and nonstationarity assumptions are found mainly for floods with return periods longer than 50years; and (3) the failure risks of flood-control infrastructure based on failure risk analysis are higher under the nonstationarity assumption than under the stationarity assumption. The flood-control infrastructure is at higher risk of flood and failure under the influence of climate change and human activities in the middle and lower parts of Pearl River basin.
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