Journal
HYDROGEOLOGY JOURNAL
Volume 24, Issue 7, Pages 1791-1806Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10040-016-1437-4
Keywords
Climate change; Numerical modeling; Saltwater intrusion; Surficial aquifer; USA
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Funding
- NASA Kennedy Space Center, Ecological Program
- Climate Adaptation Science Investigators (CASI) project [IHA-SA-13-006]
- Louisiana Sea Grant Laborde Chair Endowment
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A three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow and salinity transport model is implemented using the SEAWAT code to quantify the spatial variation of water-table depth and salinity of the surficial aquifer in Merritt Island and Cape Canaveral Island in east-central Florida (USA) under steady-state 2010 hydrologic and hydrogeologic conditions. The developed model is referred to as the 'reference' model and calibrated against field-measured groundwater levels and a map of land use and land cover. Then, five prediction/projection models are developed based on modification of the boundary conditions of the calibrated 'reference' model to quantify climate change impacts under various scenarios of sea-level rise and precipitation change projected to 2050. Model results indicate that west Merritt Island will encounter lowland inundation and saltwater intrusion due to its low elevation and flat topography, while climate change impacts on Cape Canaveral Island and east Merritt Island are not significant. The SEAWAT models developed for this study are useful and effective tools for water resources management, land use planning, and climate-change adaptation decision-making in these and other low-lying coastal alluvial plains and barrier island systems.
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