Change in cardiovascular risk assessment tool and updated Norwegian guidelines for cardiovascular disease in primary prevention increase the population proportion at risk: the Tromso Study 2015-2016

Aims To compare the population proportion at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) using the Norwegian NORRISK 1 that predicts 10-year risk of CVD mortality and the Norwegian national guidelines from 2009, with the updated NORRISK 2 that predicts 10-year risk of both fatal and non-fatal risk of CVD and the Norwegian national guidelines from 2017. Methods We included participants from the Norwegian population-based Tromso Study (2015-2016) aged 40-69 years without a history of CVD (n=16 566). The total proportion eligible for intervention was identified by NORRISK 1 and the 2009 guidelines (serum total cholesterol >= 8 mmol/L, systolic blood pressure >= 160 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure >= 100 mm Hg) and NORRISK 2 and the 2017 guidelines (serum total cholesterol >= 7 mmol/L, low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol >= 5 mmol/L, systolic blood pressure >= 160 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure >= 100 mm Hg). Results The total proportion at high risk as defined by a risk score was 12.0% using NORRISK 1 and 9.8% using NORRISK 2. When including single risk factors specified by the guidelines, the total proportion eligible for intervention was 15.5% using NORRISK 1 and the 2009 guidelines and 18.9% using NORRISK 2 and the 2017 guidelines. The lowered threshold for total cholesterol and specified cut-off for LDL cholesterol stand for a large proportion of the increase in population at risk. Conclusion The population proportion eligible for intervention increased by 3.4 percentage points from 2009 to 2017 using the revised NORRISK 2 score and guidelines.

Automated summary

The study compared the population proportion at high risk of cardiovascular disease using different prediction methods and guidelines. The revised NORRISK 2 score and guidelines led to an increase in the population proportion eligible for intervention from 2009 to 2017.