Journal
FUTURES
Volume 132, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2021.102802
Keywords
Future of work; Labor demand and supply; Technology; Economies of scale; Automation
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This passage discusses the trends of downsizing in advanced agriculture, mining, and construction industries, the 'hollowing out' of manufacturing, and the increasing capital intensity in the service sector. It also analyzes the impact of rapid economic and technological transformation on company investment, labor demand, and wage levels, as well as examines the drivers of capital/labor substitution or labor displacement. In conclusion, it summarizes the research on future workforce trends in developed and developing countries.
Advanced agriculture, mining and construction are trimming their workforces, manufacturing has been 'hollowed out', and the service sector is increasingly capital-intensive. Rapid economic and technological transformation influences company investment and can affect labor demand and wage relativities. From a deductive introduction oriented to the societal scope of innovations, this inquiry proceeds empirically, for the first time analyzing seven interacting drivers of capital / labor substitution or labor displacement. Three time-phased response scenarios are related to levels of technological impact. Thereafter, inductive theorising probes workforce futures for both developed and developing countries, arguing that not only are immediate relations of capital and labor in flux but, more widely, so are industrial and market organisation, the global geo-economic order, and the human trajectory itself.
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