Should I stay or should I go? Embracing causal heterogeneity in the study of pandemic policy and citizen behavior

Objective To test for multicausality between government policy, health outcomes, economic performance, and citizen behavior during the COVID-19 global pandemic. Methods We perform Granger-causality tests to explore the interrelationship between four endogenous variables, social distancing policy, home isolation, balance rate, and average weekly COVID-19 deaths, in the 26 states of Brazil. As exogenous variables, we included a linear time trend and a dummy for the week in which the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. Results Our analysis of Granger causal ordering between the four variables demonstrates that there is significant heterogeneity across the Brazilian federation. These findings can be interpreted as underscoring that there is no common model applicable to all states, and that the dynamics are context-dependent. Conclusion Our suggested approach allows researchers to account for the complex interrelationship between government policy, citizen behavior, the economy, and COVID-related health outcomes.

Automated summary

The study reveals significant heterogeneity in the causal relationships between government policy, citizen behavior, the economy, and COVID-related health outcomes across states in Brazil, indicating that there is no universal model applicable to all states and the dynamics are context-dependent.