Journal
ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH
Volume 90, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103273
Keywords
News discourse; Topic modeling; Tourism demand forecasting; Hong Kong
Categories
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [71761001, 71761002]
- Guangxi Key Research and Development Plan [Guike-AB20297040]
- Hong Kong Scholars Program
Ask authors/readers for more resources
This study empirically examines the role of news discourse in forecasting tourist arrivals in Hong Kong, confirming that including news data significantly improves forecasting performance, especially during social unrest at the destination level.
This study empirically tests the role of news discourse in forecasting tourist arrivals by examining Hong Kong. It employs structural topic modeling to identify key topics and their meanings related to tourism demand. The impact of the extracted news topics on tourist arrivals is then examined to forecast tourism demand using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with the selected news topic variables method. This study confirms that including news data significantly improves forecasting performance. Our forecasting model using news topics also outperformed the others when the destination was experiencing social unrest at the local level. These findings contribute to tourism demand forecasting research by incorporating discourse analysis and can help tourism destinations address various externalities related to news media. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available
Share Paper
