Monetary policy's rising FX impact in the era of ultra-low rates *

We show that the impact of monetary policy on exchange rates has been growing significantly in recent years. Our results are established by a high-frequency event study of how key fixed income instruments with different maturities respond jointly with exchange rates to monetary policy news from six major central banks. Across countries, news affecting short-term maturity bonds tend to have the strongest impact, highlighting the relevance of communication regarding the path of future monetary policy for exchange rate movements even when policy rates are near their lower bound. We find that the FX impact of monetary policy is state-dependent and is stronger the lower is the level of interest rates, in line with a greater effect through currency risk premia. Crown Copyright (c) 2021 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

The impact of monetary policy on exchange rates has been growing significantly in recent years, especially for short-term maturity bonds. The FX impact of monetary policy is state-dependent and is stronger as interest rates are lower, in line with a greater effect through currency risk premia.