Potential effects of climate changes on evaporation from a temperate deep lake

Study region: Lake Ikeda, Japan. Study focus: Few previous studies on the contribution of meteorological factors to lake evaporation (E) have been conducted with comprehensive analyses of lake surface temperature (T-s) under different climate scenarios. This study aimed to compute and compare the sensitivities of monthly and annual E to changes in solar (R-s) and atmospheric radiation (R-a), air temperature (T-a), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (u) under two climate scenarios through a 36-year numerical simulation for Lake Ikeda. New hydrological insights for the region: Where climate shifted unidirectionally, R-s and R-a were the greatest driving forces for E. The mean contributions of Rs and R-a to annual E change were approximated to be 2.4- and 5.4-times larger than that of T-a (or RH), respectively. Thus, under warming or cooling condition around the lake, R-a working with T-a was dominant for E. In contrast, considering seasonal climate variability, a remarkable effect of the seasonal variability in T-a on E, indicating negative correlation, was estimated. E changes were characterized by the dilatory thermal-reaction of T-s, enhanced by the seasonal switching effect of heat conduction between the lake and atmosphere, and seasonal temperature dependency of vapor pressure. The driving factors of E and T-s, correlations between E and meteorological factors, and variabilities of meteorological factors were compared and summarized for lakes located between 30 degrees N 45 degrees N worldwide.

Automated summary

The study focused on the contribution of meteorological factors to lake evaporation in Lake Ikeda, Japan, by analyzing the sensitivities of evaporation to changes in solar and atmospheric radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. It was found that solar and atmospheric radiation were the greatest driving forces for evaporation under unidirectional climate shift, while air temperature had a significant impact on evaporation during seasonal climate variability.