Spatiotemporal Variability and Trends of Marine Heat Waves in the Red Sea over 38 Years

Marine heat waves (MHWs) can have catastrophic consequences for the socio-environmental system. Especially in the Red Sea, which has the world's second longest coral reef system. Here, we investigate the sea surface temperature (SST) variability and trends, as well as the spatiotemporal characteristics of marine heat waves (MHWs) in the Red Sea, using high resolution daily gridded (1/20 degrees) SST data obtained from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) for the period 1982-2019. Results show that the average warming rate was about 0.342 +/- 0.047 degrees C/decade over the entire Red Sea over the whole study period. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis reveals that the maximum variability is over the central part of the Red Sea, while the minimum variability is in the southernmost part of the Red Sea. Over the last two decades (2000-2019), we have discovered that the average MHW frequency and duration increased by 35% and 67%, respectively. The results illustrate that the MHW frequency and duration trends have increased by 1.17 counts/decade and 1.79 days/decade, respectively, over the study period. The highest annual MHW frequencies were detected in the years 2018, 2019, 2010, and 2017. A strong correlation (R = 0.89) was found between the annual MHW frequency and the annual mean SST.

Automated summary

Marine heat waves can have catastrophic consequences for the socio-environmental system, especially in the Red Sea. Analysis of sea surface temperature variability and trends in the Red Sea from 1982-2019 shows an average warming rate of 0.342 +/- 0.047 degrees C/decade, with increases in MHW frequency and duration over the past two decades. The strong correlation between MHW frequency and annual mean SST indicates a potential link between warming temperatures and more frequent marine heat waves in the Red Sea.