Journal
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
Volume 23, Issue 7, Pages 2903-2914Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13555
Keywords
Alaska yellow-cedar; biogeography; Callitropsis nootkatensis; climate change; climate refugia; emergent disturbance; forest disturbance; precipitation; protected area; snow
Funding
- NSF Alaska EPSCoR award [OIA-1208927]
- Alaska Coastal Rainforest Center
- State of Alaska
- Office Of The Director
- Office of Integrative Activities [1208927] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Climate change is causing rapid changes to forest disturbance regimes worldwide. While the consequences of climate change for existing disturbance processes, like fires, are relatively well studied, emerging drivers of disturbance such as snow loss and subsequent mortality are much less documented. As the climate warms, a transition from winter snow to rain in high latitudes will cause significant changes in environmental conditions such as soil temperatures, historically buffered by snow cover. The Pacific coast of North America is an excellent test case, as mean winter temperatures are currently at the snow-rain threshold and have been warming for approximately 100 years post-Little Ice Age. Increased mortality in a widespread tree species in the region has been linked to warmer winters and snow loss. Here, we present the first high-resolution range map of this climate-sensitive species, Callitropsis nootkatensis (yellow-cedar), and document the magnitude and location of observed mortality across Canada and the United States. Snow cover loss related mortality spans approximately 10 degrees latitude (half the native range of the species) and 7% of the overall species range and appears linked to this snow-rain transition across its range. Mortality is commonly >70% of basal area in affected areas, and more common where mean winter temperatures is at or above the snow-rain threshold (>0 degrees C mean winter temperature). Approximately 50% of areas with a currently suitable climate for the species (<-2 degrees C) are expected to warm beyond that threshold by the late 21st century. Regardless of climate change scenario, little of the range which is expected to remain suitable in the future (e.g., a climatic refugia) is in currently protected landscapes (<1-9%). These results are the first documentation of this type of emerging climate disturbance and highlight the difficulties of anticipating novel disturbance processes when planning for conservation and management.
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