Understanding the Temporal Variability of Rainfall for Estimating Agro-Climatic Onset of Cropping Season over South Interior Karnataka, India

Annual, seasonal and intra-seasonal variations in rainfall affect crop production from land preparation to the realization of potential crop yield in a region. Particularly, the onset of the rainy season is most crucial for determining the sowing period. Statistical analysis (Modified Mann-Kendall aka MMK-test for trend and likelihood ratio test for shifting pattern) of 60 years rainfall of south interior Karnataka (SIK) inferred the presence of temporal variability in rainfall. There was a monotonic increase in rainfall of February, March, April, June and August months (a positive sign of MM-K (tau) value), with a negligible rate of change (Sen's slope towards zero). Upon seasonal analysis, there was a significant increase in winter, pre-monsoon and monsoonal rainfall as compared to post-monsoonal rainfall (higher Sen's slope for pre-monsoon), indicating a need for agronomic interventions for estimating an effective date of sowing for reducing risks of crop production. Further, the agro-climatic onset of cropping season was estimated by considering soil-crop-water relations. Earlier onset of cropping season was estimated based on thresholds of soil-crop-water relations, which highlights sowing of crops in advance (May 1st fortnight) instead of late (June 1st fortnight) to avoid crop losses due to early-season drought.

Automated summary

Annual, seasonal, and intra-seasonal variations in rainfall impact crop production from land preparation to achieving potential yield. Statistical analysis of 60 years rainfall in south interior Karnataka indicated temporal variability, with significant increases in certain months and seasons compared to others, highlighting the need for agronomic interventions for effective sowing dates. Additionally, the onset of cropping season was estimated based on soil-crop-water relations, emphasizing the importance of early planting to prevent crop losses due to early-season drought.