The influence of declining sea ice on shipping activity in the Canadian Arctic

Significant attention has focused on the potential for increased shipping activity driven by recently observed declines in Arctic sea ice cover. In this study, we describe the first coupled spatial analysis between shipping activity and sea ice using observations in the Canadian Arctic over the 1990-2015 period. Shipping activity is measured by using known ship locations enhanced with a least cost path algorithm to generate ship tracks and quantified by computing total distance traveled in kilometers. Statistically significant increases in shipping activity are observed in the Hudson Strait (150-500km traveled yr(-1)), the Beaufort Sea (40-450km traveled yr(-1)), Baffin Bay (50-350km traveled yr(-1)), and regions in the southern route of the Northwest Passage (50-250km traveled yr(-1)). Increases in shipping activity are significantly correlated with reductions in sea ice concentration (Kendall's tau up to -0.6) in regions of the Beaufort Sea, Western Parry Channel, Western Baffin Bay, and Foxe Basin. Changes in multiyear ice-dominant regions in the Canadian Arctic were found to be more influential on changes to shipping activity compared to seasonal sea ice regions.