Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 43, Issue 10, Pages 5492-5500Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068825
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Funding
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/K500835/1]
- Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services (RESAS) Division of the Scottish Government
- Natural Environment Research Council [ceh010010, 1191684] Funding Source: researchfish
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Results from an ensemble of models are used to investigate the response of lightning nitrogen oxide emissions to climate change and the consequent impacts on ozone production. Most models generate lightning using a parameterization based on cloud top height. With this approach and a present-day global emission of 5 TgN, we estimate a linear response with respect to changes in global surface temperature of +0.44 +/- 0.05 TgN K-1. However, two models using alternative approaches give +0.14 and -0.55 TgN K-1 suggesting that the simulated response is highly dependent on lightning parameterization. Lightning NOx is found to have an ozone production efficiency of 6.5 +/- 4.7 times that of surface NOx sources. This wide range of efficiencies across models is partly due to the assumed vertical distribution of the lightning source and partly to the treatment of nonmethane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) chemistry. Careful consideration of the vertical distribution of emissions is needed, given its large influence on ozone production.
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