Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 43, Issue 18, Pages 9729-9738Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070338
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Funding
- Ice and Climate Research at Sheffield (ICERS), University of Sheffield
- White Rose University Consortium Collaboration Fund
- European Space Agency [CryoTop 4000107394/12/I-NB, CryoTop-Evolution 4000116874/16/I-NB]
- Natural Environment Research Council [cpom30001, ceh010010] Funding Source: researchfish
- NERC [cpom30001] Funding Source: UKRI
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The formation and rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes (SGL) influences the mass balance and dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Although SGLs are expected to spread inland during the 21st century due to atmospheric warming, less is known about their future spatial distribution and volume. We use GrIS surface elevation model and regional climate model outputs to show that at the end of the 21st century (2070-2099) approximately 9.8 +/- 3.9 km(3) (+113% compared to 1980-2009) and 12.6 +/- 5 km(3) (+174%) of meltwater could be stored in SGLs under moderate and high representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), respectively. The largest increase is expected in the northeastern sector of the GrIS (191% in RCP 4.5 and 320% in RCP 8.5), whereas in west Greenland, where the most SGLs are currently observed, the future increase will be relatively moderate (55% in RCP 4.5 and 68% in RCP 8.5).
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