Global scenarios of household access to modern energy services under climate mitigation policy

Energy system scenarios to meet climate mitigation goals rarely explore the evolution of energy access and equity. Now, Poblete-Cazenave et al. show that, under many baseline and decarbonization scenarios, energy access for people in Africa and South Asia remains insufficient. Emission reduction scenarios to meet climate change mitigation policy goals rarely explore the differential impact of alternative pathways on access to energy for different economic strata of society across countries. Here we show that even under optimistic socioeconomic growth scenarios, inequalities in use of modern energy in homes could persist. We find that, although access improves in high growth scenarios, over 10% of populations in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia could lack access to energy services for thermal comfort, food preparation and conservation, and cleaning in 2050. Ambitious climate mitigation scenarios do not substantially alter household access to energy services in the Global South, and only affect gas consumption in high-income regions. Our work suggests that efforts to meet climate mitigation policy goals are not at odds with progress towards universal access to modern energy services in the Global South, however, directed policy will be needed to meet access goals.

Automated summary

Energy system scenarios rarely consider the evolution of energy access and equity while meeting climate mitigation goals. Research shows that even under optimistic socioeconomic growth scenarios, disparities in access to modern energy could persist. Ambitious climate mitigation scenarios do not substantially impact household access to energy services in the Global South, highlighting the need for directed policy to achieve access goals.