Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 43, Issue 13, Pages 7259-7266Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069835
Keywords
volcano; ENSO; SAM; model biases
Categories
Funding
- Climate and Large-scale Dynamics Program of the National Science Foundation [1419818]
- National Science Foundation
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Div Atmospheric & Geospace Sciences [1419818] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Confusion exists regarding the tropospheric circulation response to volcanic eruptions, with models and observations seeming to disagree on the sign of the response. The forced Southern Hemisphere circulation response to the eruptions of Pinatubo and El Chichon is shown to be a robust positive annular mode, using over 200 ensemble members from 38 climate models. It is demonstrated that the models and observations are not at odds, but rather, internal climate variability is large and can overwhelm the forced response. It is further argued that the state of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation can at least partially explain the sign of the observed anomalies and may account for the perceived discrepancy between model and observational studies. The eruptions of both El Chichon and Pinatubo occurred during El Nino events, and it is demonstrated that the Southern Annular Mode anomalies following volcanic eruptions are weaker during El Nino events compared to La Nina events.
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