Journal
SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND SOCIETY
Volume 70, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2021.102936
Keywords
Long-term prediction; Electricity demand; Climate change; Data-driven methods; Machine learning methods
Categories
Funding
- Vice-Chancellor's Discretionary Fund of the Chinese University of Hong Kong
- Research Impact Fund of Research Grant Council, Hong Kong [CUHK R4046-18F]
- URC Seed Funding for Strategic Interdisciplinary Research Scheme (SIRS) of The University of Hong Kong [102009942]
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This study on future long-term monthly electricity demand in Hong Kong found that the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) method performed the best in terms of accuracy, generalization ability, and time-series stability, while the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method exhibited the lowest accuracy and lower generalization ability.
Data-driven methods, such as artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector regression (SVM), Gaussian process regression (GPR), multiple linear regression (MLR), decision trees (DTs), and gradient boosting decision trees (GBDTs), are the most popular and advanced methods for energy demand prediction. However, these methods have not been cross compared to analyze their performances for long-term energy demand predictions. Therefore, this paper aims to identify the best method among these data-driven methods for quantifying the impacts of climatic and socioeconomic changes on future long-term monthly electricity demand in Hong Kong. First, historical 40-year climatic, socioeconomic, and electricity consumption data are used to train and validate these models. Second, different representation concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and three percentiles of 24 global circulation model outputs are adopted as future climatic changes, while five shared socioeconomic pathways are considered for future socioeconomic uncertainties. The results show that the GBDT method provides the best accuracy, generalization ability, and time-series stability, while ANN method exhibits the lowest accuracy and lower generalization ability. The monthly electricity demands in Hong Kong under the RCP8.5-2090 s scenario are predicted to increase by up to 89.40 % and 54.34 % in the residential and commercial sectors, respectively, when compared with 2018 levels.
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