A deep decarbonization pathway for Peru's rainforest

Peru holds an important portion of the South American rainforest. An average deforestation rate of 145,000 ha a year makes it the largest source of GHG emissions. Based on the drivers of deforestation, this paper proposes a deep decarbonization pathway (DDP) through the year 2050 with the purpose of taking the country closer to achieving the net-zero emissions goal. The impacts of the pathway are estimated using POLYSYS-Peru, an equilibrium displacement model for the integrated analysis of land-use changes and agriculture. The results indicate that the proposed DDP pathway, by preventing the deforestation of 4 million hectares of primary forests, would reduce GHG emissions by an accumulated 1778 Mt CO2 eq. compared to the business as usual scenario, and 497 Mt CO2 eq. more than the Nationally Determined Contributions.

Automated summary

The paper proposes a deep decarbonization pathway for Peru, aiming to prevent the deforestation of 4 million hectares of primary forests and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 1778 million tons of CO2 equivalent by 2050. The proposed pathway would surpass the Nationally Determined Contributions by 497 million tons of CO2 equivalent.