Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 43, Issue 11, Pages 5841-5850Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069022
Keywords
global warming hydrological cycle change; regional precipitation change; parameter sensitivity; uncertainty quantification; perturbed physics ensemble; deep convection parameterization
Categories
Funding
- National Science Foundation (NSF) [AGS-1102838/AGS-1540518]
- Department of Energy [DE-SC0006739]
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NA14OAR4310274]
- NCAR's Computational and Information Systems Laboratory
- NSF
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Div Atmospheric & Geospace Sciences [1540518] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) [DE-SC0006739] Funding Source: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)
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A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme. This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive dangerous ranges. The low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.
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