Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 43, Issue 15, Pages 8151-8159Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069273
Keywords
sea level change; intrinsic variability; CMIP5; eddy-permitting OGCM; Western Boundary Currents
Categories
Funding
- Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) through the Ocean Surface Topography Science Team (OST/ST)
- ANR [ANR-13-BS06-0007-01]
- CNES
- Region Midi-Pyrenees
- CNRS
- CERFACS
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A global eddy-permitting (1/4 degrees resolution) ocean general circulation model is shown to spontaneously generate intrinsic oceanic variability (IOV) up to multidecadal timescales (T > 20years) under a repeated seasonal atmospheric forcing. In eddy-active regions, the signature of this multidecadal eddy-driven IOV on sea level is substantial, weakly autocorrelated, and is comparable to (and may clearly exceed) the corresponding signature of internal climate variability (ICV) produced by current coupled climate modelswhose laminar ocean components may strongly underestimate IOV. Deriving sea level trends from finite-length time series in eddy-active regions yields uncertainties induced by this multidecadal IOV, which are of the same order of magnitude as those due to ICV. A white noise model is proposed to approximate the low-frequency tail of the IOV spectra and could be used to update ICV estimates from current climate simulations and projections.
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