Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH AND PREVENTIVE MEDICINE
Volume 26, Issue 1, Pages -Publisher
JAPANESE SOC HYGIENE
DOI: 10.1186/s12199-021-00992-8
Keywords
Seasonality; Mortality; Temperature; Climate change
Categories
Funding
- National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) - Ministry of Science, ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) [2019R1A2C1086194]
- JSPS KAKENHI [JP19K17104]
- JSPS Invitational Fellowships for Research in Japan [S18149]
- Career Development Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council [APP1107107, APP1163693]
- Medical Research Council UK [MR/M022625/1, MR/R013349/1]
- Natural Environment Research Council UK [NE/R009384/1]
- European Union [820655]
- Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, Japan [S-14]
- National Research Foundation of Korea [2019R1A2C1086194] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
- MRC [MR/R013349/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- NERC [NE/R009384/1] Funding Source: UKRI
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The seasonality of mortality is partially influenced by temperature, and its amplitude may decrease under a warming climate.
Background Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate. Methods Daily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality, and annual data on prefecture-specific characteristics were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan between 1972 and 2015. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the seasonal variation of mortality with a focus on its amplitude, which was quantified as the ratio of mortality estimates between the peak and trough days (peak-to-trough ratio (PTR)). We quantified the contribution of temperature to seasonality by comparing PTR before and after temperature adjustment. Associations between annual mean temperature and annual estimates of the temperature-unadjusted PTR were examined using multilevel multivariate meta-regression models controlling for prefecture-specific characteristics. Results The temperature-unadjusted PTRs for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27-1.30), 1.53 (95% CI: 1.50-1.55), and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.44-1.48), respectively; adjusting for temperature reduced these PTRs to 1.08 (95% CI: 1.08-1.10), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08-1.11), and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.32-1.39), respectively. During the period of rising temperature (1.3 degrees C on average), decreases in the temperature-unadjusted PTRs were observed for all mortality causes except circulatory mortality. For each 1 degrees C increase in annual mean temperature, the temperature-unadjusted PTR for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality decreased by 0.98% (95% CI: 0.54-1.42), 1.39% (95% CI: 0.82-1.97), and 0.13% (95% CI: - 1.24 to 1.48), respectively. Conclusion Seasonality of mortality is driven partly by temperature, and its amplitude may be decreasing under a warming climate.
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