Connections Between Mean North Pacific Circulation and Western US Precipitation Extremes in a Warming Climate

Extreme precipitation has widespread impacts over the western US (WUS), which are expected to be exacerbated in the future given thermodynamically driven increases in atmospheric moisture and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. However, internal climate variability complicates how these factors affect future projections of precipitation changes. In this study, we investigate late 21st-century changes in mean-state responses over the North Pacific Ocean and associated WUS precipitation extremes using the Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive, which is a recent and valuable resource to disentangle the effects of model structural differences from internal variability. We found that inter-model differences in precipitation extremes over the WUS are large: from south to north (here, from California to Washington), models show different levels of increases for both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. In general, the Pacific Northwest sees a more consistent signal than California. We show that wet-season mean circulation influences extreme precipitation, by using a decomposition of the relative contributions of thermodynamic (atmospheric humidity) and dynamic (large-scale circulation) driven changes. The thermodynamic contribution dominates, however, the dynamic contribution varies with latitude and differs substantially between model ensembles. Inter-model differences affect the spread in not only the magnitude, but also the sign of the dynamic contribution. This implies that mean circulation changes contribute to uncertainty in quantifying the regional structure of concentrated moisture flux and future extreme events. This result highlights the need to more accurately constrain projected North Pacific coupled circulation changes to narrow the spread in projections of future precipitation extremes.

Automated summary

The study investigates future changes in precipitation extremes over the western US and North Pacific Ocean using a multi-model ensemble archive. It shows large inter-model differences in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation, with a more consistent signal in the Pacific Northwest compared to California. The analysis highlights the dominance of thermodynamic contributions in extreme precipitation, but also emphasizes the need for accurate projections of North Pacific coupled circulation changes to reduce uncertainty in future precipitation extremes.