Peak Runoff Timing Is Linked to Global Warming Trajectories

The earth's hydroclimate is continuing to change, and the corresponding impacts on water resource space-time distribution need to be understood to mitigate their socioeconomic consequences. A variety of ecosystem services, transport processes, and human activities are synced with the timing of peak annual runoff. To understand the influence of changing hydroclimate on peak runoff dates across the continental United States, we downscaled outputs of 10 Global Circulation Models for different future scenarios. Our results quantify robust spatial patterns of both negative (up to 3-5 weeks) and positive (up to 2-4 weeks) shifts in the dates of peak annual runoff occurrence by the end of this century. In snowmelt-dominated areas, annual maxima are projected to shift to earlier dates due to the corresponding changes in snow accumulation timing. For regions in which the occurrence of springtime extreme soil wetness shifts to later time, we find that peak annual runoff is also projected to be delayed. These patterns of runoff timing change tend to be more pronounced for projections of higher greenhouse concentration in the future.

Automated summary

The earth's hydroclimate is changing, impacting water resource distribution and socioeconomic consequences. Simulations show significant shifts in peak annual runoff dates by the end of this century, with more pronounced changes in timing influenced by future greenhouse gas concentrations.