Assessing the impact of climate on annual and seasonal discharges at the Sremska Mitrovica station on the Sava River, Serbia

Flood frequency analyses was performed on annual maxima series for 90 years (1928-2017) of discharge data recorded at the Sremska Mitrovica gauging station on the Sava River. The three-parameter distributions (PearsonIII, Log-PearsonIII) are more suitable for modelling annual maxima than distribution functions with only two parameters (Normal, Log-normal, Gumbel). The Mann-Kendall test statistic indicated that there is no statistically significant trend identified in annual maximum discharges or average annual discharges. A positive increasing trend was observed in annual temperature, while annual precipitation shows a decreasing trend which is non-significant. The seasonality analysis found a statistically non-significant weak negative trend in discharge in spring, summer and autumn and a statistically non-significant weak positive trend in winter. During winter, spring, and summer a non-significant negative trend in precipitation was observed, while autumn has experienced a statistically significant increasing trend. Temperatures show a positive trend in all seasons, but only temperatures during the warm period show a statistically significant increase. The results demonstrate that decreasing discharges of the Sava River at the Sremska Mitrovica gauging station are mainly the consequence of decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature (increasing evaporation), which is consistent with the results of other studies of the region.

Automated summary

The study found that there is no significant trend in annual maximum river discharges at the Sremska Mitrovica gauging station on the Sava River, with increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation trends. Seasonal analysis showed a weak negative trend in spring, summer, and autumn, and a weak positive trend in winter, with a significant increasing trend in autumn precipitation.