Evaluating the climate change effects on temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration in eastern Iran using CMPI5

In this study, the trend of climate changes during a future period from 2020 to 2039 has been evaluated using the data of the Fifth Climate Change Report under two emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for Neishabour plain, Iran. Eleven models such as CESM, EC EARTH, HADGEM, MPI, NORESM, CANESM, CSIROM, GFDLCM2, GISS E2, IPSL and MIROC ESM have been used to evaluate changes in minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. The results showed that GFDLCM2, MPI and IPSL models were more accurate in terms of precipitation and GISS E2 and GFDLCM2 models were the suitable option for predicting the maximum and minimum temperatures and evapotranspiration. Considering the evaluated parameters, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and evapotranspiration had approximately the constant trends and were accompanied by a slight increase and decrease for the next two decades, but for the precipitation, large fluctuations were predicted for the next period. Moreover, in the study years for the four parameters in all simulated models, the RCP 8.5 scenario has estimated a higher amount than the RCP 4.5 scenario.

Automated summary

This study evaluated the climate change trends in Neishabour plain, Iran from 2020 to 2039 using data from the Fifth Climate Change Report under two emission scenarios. Different models showed varying accuracy in predicting precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration, with overall trends indicating slight changes in precipitation and temperature over the next two decades.