Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble for Precipitation Downscaling Results and Observational Data: The Case of Hanjiang River Basin

Evaluating global climate model (GCM) outputs is essential for accurately simulating future hydrological cycles using hydrological models. The GCM multi-model ensemble (MME) precipitation simulations of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively) were spatially and temporally downscaled according to a multi-site statistical downscaling method for the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB), China. Downscaled precipitation accuracy was assessed using data collected from 14 meteorological stations in the HRB. The spatial performances, temporal performances, and seasonal variations of the downscaled CMIP5-MME and CMIP6-MME were evaluated and compared with observed data from 1970-2005. We found that the multi-site downscaling method accurately downscaled the CMIP5-MME and CMIP6-MME precipitation simulations. The downscaled precipitation of CMIP5-MME and CMIP6-MME captured the spatial pattern, temporal pattern, and seasonal variations; however, precipitation was slightly overestimated in the western and central HRB and precipitation was underestimated in the eastern HRB. The precipitation simulation ability of the downscaled CMIP6-MME relative to the downscaled CMIP5-MME improved because of reduced biases. The downscaled CMIP6-MME better simulated precipitation for most stations compared to the downscaled CMIP5-MME in all seasons except for summer. Both the downscaled CMIP5-MME and CMIP6-MME exhibit poor performance in simulating rainy days in the HRB.

Automated summary

The study evaluated and compared the accuracy of downscaled precipitation simulations of CMIP5-MME and CMIP6-MME for the Hanjiang River Basin in China. The results showed that the downscaled precipitation captured spatial and temporal patterns well, but there were slight overestimations and underestimations in certain regions. The downscaled CMIP6-MME performed better than CMIP5-MME in simulating precipitation, especially in reducing biases, except for summer seasons.