Journal
TRANSPORTATION LETTERS-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH
Volume 14, Issue 7, Pages 778-786Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/19427867.2021.1944965
Keywords
Long-distance; passenger transport; travel cost; travel fare; large-scale model; level of service data
Funding
- Swedish Transport Administration [TRV 2019/11943]
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This paper demonstrates that cost variation for long-distance travel is often substantial and likely to increase in the future. Different approaches are proposed for addressing cost variation in model estimation and forecasting, with focus on public transport and car type choice for handling car cost variation.
In this paper, we show that cost variation for long-distance travel is often substantial and we discuss why it is likely to increase further in the future. Thus, the current practice in large-scale models, to set one single travel cost for a combination of origin, destination, mode, and purpose, has potential for improvement. To tackle this issue, we develop ways of accounting for cost variation in model estimation and forecasting. For public transport, two approaches are proposed. The first method focusses on improving the average fare, whereas the second approach incorporates a submodel for choice of fare alternative within a demand model structure. Only the second method is consistent with random utility theory. For car, cost variation is related to long run decisions such as car type choice. Handling car cost variation therefore implies considering car type choice. This long-term choice can be considered using a car fleet model.
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