Representing travel cost variation in large-scale models of long-distance passenger transport

In this paper, we show that cost variation for long-distance travel is often substantial and we discuss why it is likely to increase further in the future. Thus, the current practice in large-scale models, to set one single travel cost for a combination of origin, destination, mode, and purpose, has potential for improvement. To tackle this issue, we develop ways of accounting for cost variation in model estimation and forecasting. For public transport, two approaches are proposed. The first method focusses on improving the average fare, whereas the second approach incorporates a submodel for choice of fare alternative within a demand model structure. Only the second method is consistent with random utility theory. For car, cost variation is related to long run decisions such as car type choice. Handling car cost variation therefore implies considering car type choice. This long-term choice can be considered using a car fleet model.

Automated summary

This paper demonstrates that cost variation for long-distance travel is often substantial and likely to increase in the future. Different approaches are proposed for addressing cost variation in model estimation and forecasting, with focus on public transport and car type choice for handling car cost variation.