Geodetic Model of the March 2021 Thessaly Seismic Sequence Inferred from Seismological and InSAR Data

In this work, we propose a geodetic model for the March 2021 Thessaly seismic sequence (TSS). We used the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technique and exploited a dataset of Sentinel-1 images to successfully detect the surface deformation caused by three major events of the sequence and constrain their kinematics, further strengthened by seismic data analysis. Our geodetic inversions are consistent with the activation of distinct blind faults previously unknown in this region: three belonging to the NE-dipping normal fault associated with the Mw 6.3 and Mw 6.0 events, and one belonging to the SW-dipping normal fault associated with the Mw 5.6, the last TSS major event. We performed a Coulomb stress transfer analysis and a 1D pore pressure diffusivity modeling to investigate the space-time evolution of the sequence; our results indicate that the seismic sequence developed in a sort of domino effect. The combination of the lack of historical records of large earthquakes in this area and the absence of mapped surface features produced by past faulting make seismic hazard estimation difficult for this area: InSAR data analysis and modeling have proven to be an extremely useful tool in helping to constrain the rupture characteristics.

Automated summary

This study proposes a geodetic model to explain the Thessaly seismic sequence in March 2021, successfully detecting surface deformation and constraining kinematics using InSAR techniques. The activation of unknown blind faults in the region is identified, and Coulomb stress transfer analysis and pore pressure modeling indicate a domino effect in the sequence development. The lack of historical earthquake records and surface features from past faulting complicates seismic hazard estimation in the area, highlighting the usefulness of InSAR data analysis and modeling in understanding rupture characteristics.