Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context

We propose a novel model based on a set of coupled delay differential equations with fourteen delays in order to accurately estimate the incubation period of COVID-19, employing publicly available data of confirmed corona cases. In this goal, we separate the total cases into fourteen groups for the corresponding fourteen incubation periods. The estimated mean incubation period we obtain is 6.74 days (95% Confidence Interval(CI): 6.35 to 7.13), and the 90th percentile is 11.64 days (95% CI: 11.22 to 12.17), corresponding to a good agreement with statistical supported studies. This model provides an almost zero-cost computational complexity to estimate the incubation period.

Automated summary

By using a novel model based on coupled delay differential equations, we accurately estimated the average incubation period of COVID-19 to be 6.74 days, and the 90th percentile to be 11.64 days, showing good agreement with previous statistical studies.