Plant pathogen infection risk tracks global crop yields under climate change

The authors model the impact of future temperature changes on infection risk for 12 major crops from 80 fungal and oomycete plant pathogens. They find increased risk, as well as crop yield, at higher latitudes and predict major shifts in pathogen assemblages in the United States, Europe and China. Global food security is strongly determined by crop production. Climate change-induced losses to production can occur directly or indirectly, including via the distributions and impacts of plant pathogens. However, the likely changes in pathogen pressure in relation to global crop production are poorly understood. Here we show that temperature-dependent infection risk, r(T), for 80 fungal and oomycete crop pathogens will track projected yield changes in 12 crops over the twenty-first century. For most crops, both yields and r(T) are likely to increase at high latitudes. In contrast, the tropics will see little or no productivity gains, and r(T) is likely to decline. In addition, the United States, Europe and China may experience major changes in pathogen assemblages. The benefits of yield gains may therefore be tempered by the greater burden of crop protection due to increased disease and unfamiliar pathogens.

Automated summary

The study modeled the impact of future temperature changes on infection risk for 80 fungal and oomycete crop pathogens on 12 major crops, predicting increased risk and crop yield at higher latitudes and major shifts in pathogen assemblages in high-latitude regions. The findings suggest that while high-latitude areas may see both increased yields and infection risks, tropical regions may experience little to no productivity gains and decreased infection risk. Major changes in pathogen assemblages are also expected in the United States, Europe, and China.