Projected ocean warming constrained by the ocean observational record

Ocean heat content is increasing, yet projections have not been constrained by observations. Using Argo data and CMIP6 models shows high climate sensitivity models overestimate increases; constrained projections estimate sea-level rise, from 0 to 2,000 m thermal expansion, of 17-26 cm by 2081-2100. The ocean absorbs most of the excess heat from anthropogenic climate change, causing global ocean warming and sea-level rise with a series of consequences for human society and marine ecosystems. While there have been ongoing efforts to address large uncertainties in future projections, to date the projected ocean warming has not been constrained by the historical observations. Here, we show that the observed ocean warming over the well-sampled Argo period (2005-2019) can constrain projections of future ocean warming and that the upper-tail projections from latest climate models with high climate sensitivities are unrealistically large. By 2081-2100, under the high-emission scenario, the upper 2,000 m of the ocean is likely (>66% probability) to warm by 1,546-2,170 ZJ relative to 2005-2019, corresponding to 17-26 cm sea-level rise from thermal expansion. Further narrowing uncertainties requires maintenance of the ocean observing system to extend the observational record.

Automated summary

Ocean heat content is increasing, leading to sea-level rise, with thermal expansion projected to reach 17-26 cm in the future. Historical observations have constrained high-end projections of future ocean warming.