Effects of climate change and land-use changes on spatiotemporal distributions of blue water and green water in Ningxia, Northwest China

Water resources are a crucial factor that determines the health of ecosystems and socio-economic development; however, they are under threat due to climate change and human activities. The quantitative assessment of water resources using the concept of blue water and green water can improve regional water resources management. In this study, spatiotemporal distributions of blue water and green water were simulated and analyzed under scenarios of climate change and land-use changes using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Northwest China, between 2009 and 2014. Green water, a leading component of water resources, accounted for more than 69.00% of the total water resources in Ningxia. Blue water and green water showed a single peak trend on the monthly and annual scales during the study period. On the spatial scale, the southern region of Ningxia showed higher blue water and green water resources than the northern region. The spatiotemporal distribution features of blue water, green water, and green water flow had strong correlations with precipitation. Furthermore, the simulation identified the climate change in Ningxia to be more influential on blue water and green water than land-use changes. This study provides a specific scientific foundation to manage water resources in Ningxia when encountered with climate change together with human activities.

Automated summary

Water resources are essential for ecosystem health and socio-economic development, but they are threatened by climate change and human activities. Assessing blue water and green water with SWAT can enhance regional water management. In Ningxia, green water plays a significant role, accounting for over 69.00% of total water resources, with distinct spatial and temporal distribution patterns correlated with precipitation. Climate change has a more pronounced impact on water resources compared to land-use changes in Ningxia.