Optimizing vaccine allocation for COVID-19 vaccines shows the potential role of single-dose vaccination

Most COVID-19 vaccines require two doses, however with limited vaccine supply, policymakers are considering single-dose vaccination as an alternative strategy. Using a mathematical model combined with optimization algorithms, we determined optimal allocation strategies with one and two doses of vaccine under various degrees of viral transmission. Under low transmission, we show that the optimal allocation of vaccine vitally depends on the single-dose efficacy. With high single-dose efficacy, single-dose vaccination is optimal, preventing up to 22% more deaths than a strategy prioritizing two-dose vaccination for older adults. With low or moderate single-dose efficacy, mixed vaccination campaigns with complete coverage of older adults are optimal. However, with modest or high transmission, vaccinating older adults first with two doses is best, preventing up to 41% more deaths than a single-dose vaccination given across all adult populations. Our work suggests that it is imperative to determine the efficacy and durability of single-dose vaccines, as mixed or single-dose vaccination campaigns may have the potential to contain the pandemic much more quickly. Most COVID-19 vaccines require two doses but a single dose provides partial protection, so it is unclear how best to prioritize vaccine distribution in the context of limited supply. Here, the authors show that campaigns in which some age groups receive one dose while others receive both doses may be optimal.

Automated summary

The optimal allocation strategy for COVID-19 vaccines, whether single-dose or two-dose, depends on the transmission rate and vaccine efficacy. In low transmission scenarios, single-dose vaccination is optimal with high efficacy, while in high transmission scenarios, prioritizing older adults for two doses is the best strategy to prevent more deaths.