Journal
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT
Volume 96, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2021.102846
Keywords
Discrete-choice demand models; Consumer preference; Emissions; Transportation
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Both consumer preferences and technological advances are crucial in reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the transportation sector, as without these, emissions cannot be effectively reduced.
Which comes first in reducing the Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions from the transportation sector: consumer preference or technological advancement? Using a series of discrete-choice demand models, we estimate the demand for automobiles in Japan. Our model explicitly allows consumer preferences for fuel economy to evolve over time, and the estimation results confirm the existence of such a change. We then simulate consumer behavior, enabling consumers in 2010 to choose automobiles from 2016, and vice versa. The results imply that both consumer preferences and technological advancement are important-without technological advancement and increases in consumers' appreciation for fuel-efficient cars, CO2 emissions cannot be reduced.
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