Journal
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
Volume 211, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107637
Keywords
Aleatory uncertainty; Project resources; Reliability-based schedule sensitivity index; Stochastic project networks; Task reliability
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This paper fills the gap in uncertainty analysis of resource acquisition in project management by taking a success-oriented view and constructing Reliability Block Diagram (RBD). A new schedule sensitivity index is proposed to account for uncertainty in time duration and resource acquisition, demonstrating better performance in evaluating the relative importance of activities in stochastic project networks.
The extant literature offers little basis for uncertainty analysis of resource acquisition in project management. Within the spirit of reliability theory, the present paper attempts to fill this gap by taking a success-oriented view of acquiring the required resources for completing a project. In this context, the Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) is constructed to quantify the aleatory uncertainty in resource acquisition by taking into account the supply of and demand for every resource, as well as the probability that the resource is available when it is required. Further, this article generates a new schedule sensitivity index that accounts for uncertainty in both time duration and resource acquisition of project activity. This paper compares the effectiveness of the proposed index in evaluating the relative importance of activities in stochastic project networks. The new index proves better performance due to its ability to capture uncertainty in both time duration and resource acquisition of project activity.
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