Predictive monitoring using machine learning algorithms and a real-life example on schizophrenia

Predictive process monitoring aims to produce early warnings of unwanted events. We consider the use of the machine learning method extreme gradient boosting as the forecasting model in predictive monitoring. A tuning algorithm is proposed as the signaling method to produce a required false alarm rate. We demonstrate the procedure using a unique data set on mental health in the Netherlands. The goal of this application is to support healthcare workers in identifying the risk of a mental health crisis in people diagnosed with schizophrenia. The procedure we outline offers promising results and a novel approach to predictive monitoring.

Automated summary

This study focuses on predictive process monitoring using extreme gradient boosting as the forecasting model, with a tuning algorithm to provide early warnings for mental health crisis risk in individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia. The outlined procedure shows promising results and represents a novel approach to predictive monitoring.